Analysis of Covid-19 pandemics in Sweden

By Krzysztof Zdąbłasz

Sweden's unique response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the subject of significant controversy in both domestic and international circles. Unlike most countries, which strongly recommended or introduced widespread sector closures, quarantining, and lockdown measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019, the government of Sweden took a more lenient approach to the pandemic, prioritizing the economy and only pursuing social distancing measures such as bans on large gatherings and limited travel restrictions.

Upon the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Public Health Agency initiated contact tracing and outlined its strategy to protect the country's most vulnerable citizens and prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. As the outbreak spread, the agency advised those with respiratory symptoms to avoid social contacts, work from home if possible, minimise travel, and adhere to social distancing. The government passed a law banning large gatherings, and secondary and higher education institutions were advised to switch to distance education. Press conferences and public communications campaigns were also launched. Unlike most other countries, face masks were not recommended in public or healthcare settings.

Plots below show that Sweden had the biggest number of new cases per day through all first three pandemic waves compared to other scandinavian countries. However, toughter restrictions during fourth wave changed the situation.

New Covid cases per day

On 17 December 2020, King Carl Gustaf admitted he felt that Sweden's COVID-19 strategy "[has] failed. We have a large number who have died and that is terrible".

On 18 December 2020, Stefan Löfven, the prime minister of Sweden, announced new and tougher restrictions and recommendations including the use of face masks in public transportation and closure of all non-essential public services. In January 2021, a new pandemic law was passed that allows for the use of lockdown measures and legally limited some gatherings. Further measures were introduced in July and December 2021, such as vaccine passports.

Tests performed

Covid deaths

It was mainly elderly who died on Covid. Only 82 people under the age of 40 died.

The mortality graph shows that Sweden has not done well with Covid. During the first 3 waves it had the highest mortality rate of all Scandinavian countries. Based on Eurostat, excess mortality in Sweden during 2020 was 7.7%, in Denmark was 1.5% and in Finland 1%, with no excess in Norway.

Intensive care demographics

It seems that men undergo Covid worse than women. In every age group, more men ended up in the ICU.

How air temperature impacted Covid cases

There is a significant negative correlation between average air temperature and new Covid cases.

Vaccinations

The Swedes have taken vaccinations very seriously. Almost 74% of population is fully vaccinated as of 11.05.2022. Vaccine passports and other measures were introduced in December 2021.

Pfizer vaccine was the most popular in Sweden with almost 15M doses taken. Only 4 vaccines have been approved for use: Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Novavax. However, only 727 doses of Novavax were used.

How Covid impacted the economics

Covid has hit the Sweden's economics hard. The unemployment rate significantly increased in 2020 and 2021 and Gross Domestic Product dropped.

Impact of Covid on mental health

We analysed how Covid affected suicide rates in Sweden. It turns out that there were fewer suicides during pandemic years. This may be caused by the fact, that people spent more time with their families during self-isolation, but a deeper analysis is needed.